The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Thursday -- Frank The Cycles Guy, SPX/VIX Ratio

S&P E-mini Futures:
Bouncing from pullback from yesterday's highs.

Asia mixed once again. Europe solid red. Italian 10-year yields up notably vs Spanish yields for a second day.

So, old Frank was a cycles guy. Looks like he was in a down cycle.

Someday investors will be in a down cycle too, but not before euphoria peaks. Until then enjoy the ride.

Mean reversion will be bloody, especially since it might not occur until the 2011's pivot low of 1074.77.

SPX divided by VIX. Vol is completely out of whack.

Every time I'm tempted to sell premium, I look at this chart and the feeling passes.

When the wave count suggests, I want to be very long premium in the form of OTM SPX, SPY, and OEX puts.

CAD & MXN spiked on Trump's softening on NAFTA.

SEK hammered on Riksbank stimulus.

GBP higher.

Bitcoin back into 1300s.

Another day of unconvincing price action thus far.

2s have yet to break above their Feb swing points, not confirming the rest of the curve (5s-30s).

WTI crude trading heavy after failing 50. Both crude and NG down over 1%.

Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium higher. Copper down.

S&P Outlook:
Hard to tell. Either a more complex ABC down from yesterday's high, or a still-developing impulse wave that started last Thursday, April 20th.

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