The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, May 22, 2017

Monday -- Fed Damage Control?

S&P E-mini Futures:
Flat in chop.

Markets:
Mixed in Asia and Europe. Higher rates around the world thus far.

The latest Federal Reserve data noted a worsening of C&I loan growth contraction, with another 50% decline over the past two months.

Commercial and industrial loans are kind of a big deal for the economy, and we're back to the lowest growth rate since May 2011.

Each time C&I loan has peaked, a recession has followed.

A sharp rebound is needed. Perhaps that's why there are four Fed speakers today:
Harker, Kashkari, Brainard, and Evans.

Damage control?

Mood:
Someone please locate the massive pent-up demand for self-driving cars. Otherwise it's yet another symbol of mood gone mad. Seeing a lot of ink about how inevitable it is.

Speaking of mad, Bitcoin blew the top off 2000, up another 5% and closing in on 2200.

Madness in da House, too:

H.R.2366 - Discharge Student Loans in Bankruptcy Act of 2017

$1.4 trillion. Poof.

FX:
USD could be close to firming. JPY weakening. USDCAD still taking its time.

EUR ripfest higher continues.

Treasuries:
Starting the new week with declining prices, except 30s.

Energy:
WTI crude and NG higher together once again, though crude may have reversed from 51.43.

Metals:
Gold and silver higher. Platinum, palladium, and copper red.

S&P Outlook:
Thursday the S&P was repelled from its 38% retracement. Friday it recovered but was eventually repelled by the 61.8% retracement later in the day.

Thus we're at an important juncture. If the S&P can rally a bit higher, it would raise the odds of a triangle or perhaps even an impulse to new highs.

If it rolls over, the 2335 area could be an ABC target. Would be a buyer there.



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