The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, May 15, 2017

Monday -- FX & Commodity Ripfest, Xi's Rebuff, Premium Coolers

S&P E-mini Futures:
Chop chop.

Commodity ripfest brought to you by a weaker USD. Asia mostly green. Europe mixed.

Chinese President Xi Jinping had a small problem when presenting his "One Belt, One Road" globalisation initiative: not even the EU wanted to sign on.

France, Germany, Estonia, Greece, Portugal and Britain would not sign one of the summit documents on trade. And India bailed as well.

Nationalism is replacing collectivism as mood shifts from the warm and fuzzy effects of peak positive mood to the negative mood trend of the coming Grand Supercycle.

This weekend I stopped into West Marine in San Juan. The latest category to become completely unhinged from reality is the premium cooler category.

This cooler doesn't even fit a case of beer but costs $200.

This one fits even less and costs $285.

But the prize goes to this beast. $899 for a fashion-inspired "luxury" cooler that could only belong at the Fyre Festival.

As tweeted, we are witnessing extreme psychology. Take note.

Take note also of an excellent interview with Lacy Hunt for a masterclass in credit and debt. Most illuminating, even though I strongly disagree with the premise that the economy is too over indebted for rates to rise and stay up.

Behold Greece. Regardless, awesome stuff.

Macro Voices: Lacy Hunt interview

EUR & GBP stronger, AUD & CAD stronger. CHF & JPY stronger.

CAD broke the 1.36257 line. Now biased to short side of USDCAD when the opportunity arises.

Bitcoin down over 3%.

Friday was key for the near-term bullish scenario. Prices ripped higher.

WTI Crude up over 3%. Potential for 55+. NG cratering.

Ripping. Green.

S&P Outlook:
Both the S&P and NDX need new highs for me to try being short. Until such time, the opportunity still appears to be with the trend.

There is, however, the opportunity for a complex corrective pattern to take the S&P down to the 2300 area which would be welcome.

The NDX 5620 area could echo this potential decline.

If there is a good entry for this scenario, I'll take it.

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