The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, May 18, 2017

Thursday -- VIX & Markets Wake Up, Classic Car Prices, CAD, NQ

S&P E-mini Futures:
Slightly down, but seems to be in healing mode thus far.

Blood red across Asia and Europe.

Perhaps that one-day 46% gain can lay to rest fears of VIX being manipulated into oblivion by AI algos and central bank trading bunkers.

Excess liquidity naturally suppresses volatility because it makes assets prices rise and no one "needs" insurance.

Until they do.

Recall the guy who recently called for a "life changing" rally.

He commented yesterday, "Such a strange thing to see the S&P 500 make a new all-time high yesterday and break below its 50-day today."

That's what happens when markets wake up and get real. Too much complacency leads to too much fear. Too much yang leads too too much yin. Hoping for much more two-sided market action.

At this juncture, just hope it's a warning.

Like this one:

Source: Wolf Richter, Wolf Street
Using only the data shown, we could be experiencing the "surprising disappointment" of a 4th-wave correction before a manic drive to new highs. Hard to say if it's a peak or not without seeing more data.

From “The global asset class of collector cars ... is quietly but persistently and very unenjoyably experiencing a downturn that parallels and in some aspects already exceeds the one during the financial crisis,” Wolf Street's Wolf Richter noted.

"And here’s why that’s important. Classic car prices move similarly to other assets, such as equities and real estate. The Hagerty index peaked and then plunged in April 2008, a few months before U.S. stocks suffered the biggest crash in decades, suggesting it’s an early indicator of what could be in store for other asset classes."

A cool socionometer.

CAD action not suggestive of continued USD decline last few days. USD also firmer today vs EUR, CNH, DKK, NOK, MXN, and SEK.

High volume ripfest yesterday. Still not out of the woods though. Yields still in danger of increasing inconveniently.

WTI crude down over 1% while NG rallies over 1%.

More solid red -- gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and copper.

S&P Outlook:
Beautiful 5-wave structure in NQs. Perhaps a bounce to 5600-5650? If not, then much lower.

If correct, perhaps A of an ABC correction inside a large 4th wave. This would line up with Dow and S&P.

In other words, this chart probably wrong.

Probably not
Maybe something like this.

Trader's market

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