The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Wednesday -- Fed Day

S&P E-mini Futures:
Modestly higher overnight, challenging last Friday's best levels.

Markets:
Asia mixed with China down .73%. Europe green.

Fed decision 2pm with a news conference following at 2:30pm.

Mood:
Death Of Equities, 2017-style.

Death of the human investor: Just 10% of trading is regular stock picking

This is slowly but surely making me want to position for the return of volatility in a big way.

FX:
Wild action. AUD up over 1%. CAD smashed its April swing point finally. EUR & GBP up well. USD on the ropes. But JPY & CHF sending a warning signal.

Treasuries:
Ripping pre-Fed.

Energy:
Both WTI crude and NG down currently.

Metals:
Green ex-copper.

S&P Outlook:
Turns out this rough guide from last week wasn't so bad. The actual dip was a bit more shallow than depicted, so maybe the rally will be a bit muted as well.



With the Dow's new high yesterday, the SPX may be set for one as well. But FAANG action left a lot to be desired, thus NDX may have some trubs.

The way treasuries are moving though -- ripping higher currently -- maybe Janet isn't going to hike at all.

The weak link is the Dow in my opinion, and it's looking a bit shaky pre-market. But unless the S&P decides to bail, maybe it can muddle through. It did reach the 2440 level and does look like a small head 'n' shoulders.

NDX looks the weakest and has the most to prove. 5800-5850 is still possible. But it would still look better with a new low in "C" down.

Feeling the Fed is getting increasingly desperate to look "in control" so anything can happen.


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