The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Wednesday -- "Surprising Disappointment"

S&P E-mini Futures:
Choppy up and down movement since yesterday's close, slightly lower at the moment.

Markets:
Red equities and green treasuries around the world.

Mood:
Expect more "surprising disappointment" to come from an Elliott fourth wave. Like these (but maybe worse):

Marketwatch: Selloff in U.S. stocks looks set to pick up again

Bloomberg: The Global Market Selloff Continues

Bloomberg: The Oil Rally Is Stumbling at the Worst Possible Time

Drudge Report: STOCKS SOUR: WORST DAY SINCE ELECTION...
Drudge Report: Ending longest streak of calm since 1995...
Drudge Report: TAX CUT DOUBTS ROIL MARKETS...

Bitcoin down 5%. It's rally yesterday was not an accurate indication of mood by any means.

FX:
Slight bounce day for USD. CHF & JPY strength warning though.

Treasuries:
Volume rushed in when and where it was needed to take prices higher. Pattern still unclear.

Energy:
WTI crude down over 1% but overall pattern still a rising wedge. NG down over 1% as well, but still at the top of its week-long range.

Metals:
Mixed. Gold and palladium up. Silver, platinum, and copper lower.

S&P Outlook:
Finally a shot across the bow by the S&P as it closed below the 38% level. It did close above the 1:1 Fib extension target at 2343.57 however.

An interesting juncture on the daily.


And bears have a problem developing on the daily A/D line. Like, where are they? No new low.

Source: Stockcharts.com
The next few days will likely confirm or deny the veracity of this scenario from the 13th, as well as the degree of trend, whether it's a (iv) of (iii) or a 4 of 3:


Scenario updated here and below:



It took 14 trading days to get here. The correction from April 2016 into the June Brexit lows was 48 trading days, so depending on the degree of trend, we might expect a more complicated pattern that could easily run into April.

Unfortunate timing for those puts Monday, nor will it be the last time mistakes are made. That's the business.

No comments:

Post a Comment