As The World Turns

The most newsworthy event to me is that the Swiss franc made a record high against the dollar last night. I don't think it's quite finished yet, possibly having its sights set on .85 (USDCHF). Geopolitics could be a reason, but there are two sides to that trade.

The Swiss franc may be benefiting from European debt fears. But it is those same debt fears that could then cause the franc to weaken considerably. A debt spiral in Europe would likely bring Eastern Europe to its knees. Who extended billions to Eastern Europe? Switzerland. Is it quite possible that those loans go unpaid and the franc takes it on the chin.

I'm still hanging tough on USDCAD, long and looking for trade over .997 up to par and greater. Below .95 and I'll have to reconsider.

Yesterday silver reversed from an exact .38% retracement of the sharp move from 49.82 to 32.30. It corrected off the Fib level in a beautiful 5-wave pattern straight down and is now bouncing in a choppy fashion. It is too soon to tell if this is the start of a descent well below 30 or just an A-B-C correction before it heads higher. I'd love to see it get back up to a 62% retracement around 43.12 which would likely rekindle the bullish sentiment and make an ideal short entry.

I think the S&P is marking time this morning before everyone heads off for the long weekend. It also got to a big Fib level then reversed. I've been calling for the 1333.75 area -- it got to 1332.84. There were very few up ticks taking place as it neared the spot, showing low enthusiasm. I'm not surprised it didn't quite make it.

Anything can happen as it's still early. I would not be surprised it if closed near the highs, whatever they turn out to be.

I'm looking forward to a nice, long weekend. I'm going to head down to Lady Bird Lake in central Austin and do some stand up paddle boarding, which is basically standing up on a surfboard and using a paddle. It'll feel good to get out on the water. Have a great weekend.