Bearish Non-Confirmation

I'd like to see the US dollar make up its mind. It feels like it wants to rally, but unless it vaults 76.50, I'm girding myself for a quick trip below the May lows. It's up this morning and there's a lot of red in futures land.

Meanwhile, China raised rates again and Portugal's debt yield is spiking after Moody's downgraded them. Europe is quite red as a result. I expect things to unravel there in ways few anticipate, including me. But perhaps Italy or France soon joins the messy mix BEFORE Spain, or before Greece completely defaults. France would be the definite eye opener.

The Dow exceeded its 5/31-6/1 high yesterday. A bearish non-confirmation now exists with the S&P, Nasdaq composite, and the the Russell. It is rather small though, and could easily be resolved over the next few days.

Nothing has changed, in my view, since yesterday. But I'll add another data point in addition to 1345 . . . 1298.61. Should the S&P fail to exceed 1345 and instead go below 1298.61, the high of 6/22, that would be quite bearish in my estimation and the odds would shift to 1258 and below.