It didn't take long yesterday to call my view into question. I was looking for a thrust to 1380 because the "down" structure was looking corrective. Now the "up" structure looks corrective, too.
Therefore I'm leaning toward an ending diagonal that would still resolve at 1380 or higher in a throw over. An ending diagonal has 3-wave structures within each of its 5-waves higher which overlap. Should this come to fruition, realize that it is a terminal pattern that marks the end of a trend.
The other scenario is about as immediately bearish as it gets. Straight down. The market may have traced out some sort of bearish Gartley pattern (basically a 1-2 pattern down with 3-4-5 to come) but since I have never studied Gartleys, don't listen to me. But things did get suddenly weird enough yesterday afternoon in the 1373 area for me to go flat calls, so maybe something is going on. I bought some more calls in the 1370 area using 1368.90 as the stop. Did not feel confident enough to take them home with me overnight, so I went flat.
Good thing. Overnight, the futures could not sustain their upward momentum and rolled over. This morning's open will likely tell the tale up or down. Yesterday afternoon's weird 1369.37 low should not be exceeded (in my world, that is). I would take that as a first indication that something else is going on other than a merry rise to new highs.
I noticed a "promoted" spam tweet on my Twitter stream yesterday. It was from Blackrock, the $3.65 trillion money management firm, and was encouraging investors to Rethink the Cost of Cash. Seeing that coupled with the latest Lipper report that the public was just now plowing money back into mutual funds suggests a new game may be about to begin.
excellent guidance.. paragraph 3 was perfect : )
ReplyDeletei'm expecting a Risk Off Friday, but if that doesn't materialize.. surely lulu, isrg, cmg, and aapl (to name a few, and not to mention gold) can double from here. (hope you detect a whiff of sarcasm. k
totally had me laughing as soon as i read "surely lulu" -- thanks for the awesome comments k :)
ReplyDelete