Yesterday's chart worked a little bit, but maybe not completely. I heard several people call the top yesterday. I don't think so. Either the move off the 1410.03 is the most concealed impulse wave ever, or there is a little more upside to go. But I will say that yesterday shows just how tired this market is.
I think the market is resting before the last op-ex of the summer. Friday could provide the test of 1415.32, as well as provide the information required to calculate the odds of 1422 holding.
While the market hasn't gone higher, it hasn't gone down. It could be gathering energy to take out 1422, but even if it did, I'm still not in the bullish breakout camp based on the internals. They stink.
For now, 1354.66 is the big stop. That's a long way down for me since I'm now holding some SSO as a bet (and hedge) to the upside. I also bought and sold calls during yesterday's end-of-day rout 'n' rally. For this trade, I would not want to see the S&P below 1395.62.
There was a huge trade that may have been the cause of that messy plunge yesterday. Someone dumped over 60,000 e-mini contracts then. Indeed, it looks as though someone has been unloading large positions intraday since 8/7. If so, the 6000 contract fat finger mentioned yesterday could have simply been a question of goosing a thin market higher to sell much more at better prices.
This is all just pure speculation. But it's been a long while since things like this have showed up. It usually pays to be well aware of it at least.
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