Mr. Toad's Wild Ride

 

Around 8pm EST last night the ES (e-mini futures contract) went on Mr.Toad's Wild Ride. I found this chart on Twitter courtesy of Tim Backshall who is a must to follow. He mentioned it was a single purchase of 6000 contracts, which may or may not qualify as a fat finger trade.  Who knows.

All I know is that "surprises" tend to happen in the direction of the current trend.  And that current trend, no matter how choppy or weak, is up.

Yesterday was interesting though because for the 4th day in a row, 1407.14 was not exceeded.  If today the cash S&P gets above 1405.98 in the regular session which it should, I am still expecting a thrust to 1415.32.

If 1405.98 remains unbroken for some reason, 1395 (or more) is still wide open.  Yesterday on Twitter I mentioned that I was starting to see a reverse symmetrical (or expanding) triangle that would target 1395 before heading to 1415.32.  1397.32 was not really what I had in mind, but perhaps that's what the market had in mind, which is all that matters.

By the way, that "5" on the chart means the end of a 5-wave impulse which is where I would want to be a seller.

Sadly, I got a good chunk of SSO on yesterday's dip and then did my own fat finger trade on the rally: I sold all of it when I meant to only sell half.  For some reason my mouse double-clicked the sell button.  I need a hedge against a bunch of SPY 140 puts that are expiring this week, so I'll have work to do if Mr.Toad can provide a nice dip or two.