One Way Or The Other

Futures are down, but not out.  They still haven't smashed through Wednesday's lows.  It looks like a declining wedge so far, which is one of my favorite patterns.  But the market doesn't care about my favs.  It may, however, care about copper, oil, and 10s and 30s.  These markets have all smashed through their respective Wednesday extremes.

Draghi apparently laid out a toolkit to save the eurozone.   What little I could get from the FT article (because I refuse to register) was this:

"Financial markets have been cheered by the prospect that the ECB “may consider” buying short-term government debt, albeit on the condition that ailing governments such as Spain and Italy first ask for help from the eurozone’s rescue funds."

There's that word again . . . may.   Good luck pal.

And for the second day in a row, I've found something on Marketwatch.com.  This one is brilliant, especially since I just made the point yesterday that (according to one of the writer's own colleagues) there are 8% more bulls now than there were at the May highs which were below the April highs.  But leave it to Howard Gold to proclaim that there is no investor confidence.

Maybe investors should stop reading the crap that journalists print and learn how to make decisions for themselves.

It's not easy to trade.  And it's not easy to predict where the market will go day after day.  But with hard work and perseverance, it can be done.  I expected that the market would pull back to 1387 yesterday.  It pulled back sharply, but nowhere near 1387.  Maybe it will today -- if it gets below its Wednesday lows.

The point is it's a rough business.  I can't control the market.  I can only control my reaction to it. 

Back to Gold's point: Howard, the VIX is at multi-year lows.  Sentiment is high.  78% of the S&P is above its 50-day moving average.  Volume is non-existent.  Back on November 4th, 2010 there were 527 new highs on the NYSE.  July 5th, 2012 there were 316.  Yesterday there were 145.  As the market floats higher with fewer and fewer issues hitting new highs it points to investor overconfidence and complacency.

Regardless of what I think, unless Wednesday's lows are broken today, there exists the real possibility that the market can rally higher.  Who knows, perhaps the 1415.32 highs of May are the target.  I'll be keeping my bets small until the market moves one way or the other.