Onward And Upward, Weaker And Weaker

Oh dear.  For the third day in a row, I've found something on Marketwatch.com -- and this time it took the words out of my mouth.

One More Push Higher Leading To A Market Top beat me to the punch today.  But on closer inspection, I see the writer is merely applying the same methodology that I am: Elliott Wave.  And he's seeing some other things I was not. So maybe I'll just get on with what I was going to say (and think about other possibilities such as he's suggesting -- I try to be open to anything.)

My current stance is that I think the May highs of 1415.32 want to get tested.  And I think the market will fail there.  The market could fail anywhere above 1407.14, but I think it wants the full test.

This premise rests on the assumption that the entire move from the June lows has been corrective.  Above 1415.32 would suggest a new high above the April highs of 1422.38 and would in all likelihood invalidate the current count.  It would suggest to me that an ending diagonal or rising wedge was in play up to the 1430-1440 area which corresponds to the 2008 highs.

And so the market heads onward and upward, getting weaker and weaker as new 52-week highs languish, volume dries up, and non-confirmations across a variety of indices abound.

The Financial Times reports that the G20 plans a response to rising food prices. Great. Seeing as it was their own central banks that acted in concert to prop up asset prices, did they fail to realize that corn, wheat, soybeans, sugar, etc. are also asset prices?  Probably.

The proper response would be to withdraw further stimulus, but somehow I doubt that's on the table.