The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, January 3, 2013

No Guesswork Here

This will most likely be the last post of the week. No post on Friday. I'll be so close to the border of Canada that there is no mobile phone service. And whatever internet access there is at the lodge is dial up. Ha.

Last year's 1474.51 highs are certainly in sight. The question is whether there will be any backing and filling, or even a larger corrective process, before the highs are tested, if at all . . . there's no guarantee they will be. But the charts would look much better that way.

Also, the Russell 2000 just made a new all-time high. So my bet is that at least one other index follows.

Price could trace out a multitude of patterns from current levels: triangles, wedges, impulses, whatever. Short term the market looks overbought. On weekly charts, it's signalling negative divergence. For me, the best bet is to let it do what it wants to do, release more information in the charts, and then go to work sometime next week during the first full week of the new year.

1474.51 is game. So is 1400. So is 1525. So is 1383. I'm not into guesswork. So I'll let the market figure it out over the next few days while I concentrate on having a little fun with some good friends.

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