Looks like I've left a lot on the table in the Nikkei. It's had a continued run since I exited at 12,600. Last night it surged over 3% to 14,180. There is a multi-year trend line around 17,000 that just might be the target.
The strength in the Nikkei is occurring against a slowdown in yen momentum. But looking across the world markets this morning, it seems that the Nikkei rally could become the "news of the day" and a reason for continued bullishness. Green is almost everywhere, and S&P futures turned up sharply last night from a negative close.
I also noticed bullishness in OEX options yesterday. Calls were favored over puts by almost 4:1. Being Tuesday, we could be ready for a clawback at some point.
Someone on Stocktwits noted that the first solar eclipse of 2013 occurs this Friday, May 10th. In that the trend is up, if a top were to occur this week, it could be Friday. Astronomical events usually act as catalysts for trend change.
For levels today, a quick Fib calculation targets 1624 or 1630. I still would not be surprised by a dip to 1605-1610. 1581.28 remains a larger, lower target. A daily close below there would most definitely anger the animal spirits.
Speaking of animal spirits and Stocktwits, a short while ago I noticed that the Stocktwits sentiment rating (an awesome feature) on SAM was 100% bullish as the stock floated higher and higher on no volume, often well below 100,000 shares. SAM's earnings failed to impress investors and the stock plummeted from a high of 172.05 to 145.27 in 3 days.
I was very wrong on SAM, thinking a while back that it would fill its huge gap on the daily chart at 114.23. It did not. I lost a modest amount on some puts I bought.
Yet when there are no bears, there will soon be bears. Keep track of the Stocktwits sentiment rating.