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Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Patterns, Bees, And Butterflies

I haven't recognized a clear Elliott pattern on the daily S&P chart since the "five-down-three-up" that broke last July. I hesitate to say this, but there are times lately when the market feels broken, as if normal price discovery has been replaced by something else. It reminds me of the 2004-2007 period.

Rather than attempt to fit a larger pattern into an intraday trading plan, it has been much simpler (and safer) to take each day as it comes. Soon a larger pattern will emerge. Until then, it's much like Muhammad Ali playing rope-a-dope: it could float like a butterfly until it stings like a bee.

Futures made a new high overnight and have now undercut the overnight low. I see initial support today at 1614-1617. 1605-1608 could be a second support level. Below 1597 could be a red flag. 1630, yesterday's upper target, remains.

The VIX is not confirming the new highs in the S&P, but I don't find it attractive yet. Currently, all it means to me is that options are cheap and should be used.

Marketwatch led this morning with a comment from Nouriel Roubini that seemed out of context. The headline read "Roubini says look out for a big market crash" yet Roubini said a “huge rally in risk assets” over the next two years could be setting markets up for a major selloff. (emphasis added) I think the guy sounds bullish.

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