The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Late Post: Much Ado About Nothing

Here's a similar chart to what I posted yesterday on Stocktwits/Twitter:

Notice the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level has stopped the advance for the time being, but I'm not sure for how long. The pullback thus far seems a little overlapped and is therefore suggestive of a corrective move which could signal yet higher prices. If so, I find it interesting that there are 4 levels of Fibonacci confluence above the market. That's what I call a "target rich environment."

Interesting also is the fact that from a volume profile perspective, there is a volume shelf at 1679.25 which coincides almost perfectly with confluence area #3.

As the market moves higher I'm seeing persistent rot in the internals which was also noted yesterday.

Today, however, I am seeing relative strength in JNK and HYG  vs. SPY and IYG (suggesting Risk On) which may or may not be Fed related.  Asia was mixed last night and Europe was down today. The yen still hasn't changed much from the triangle noted yesterday.

For now I'm content to have the market keep heading higher because I perceive it to be weak. Therefore the higher it goes, the more I want to position myself as a seller.

Conversely, I would position myself as a buyer only much lower. 1536 comes to mind.

For the moment, though, there's not much to do but enjoy the warm weather and relax while the rest flip out over today's Fed decision. Much ado about nothing.

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