The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, June 20, 2013

Like, Right Now

Europe and Asia ex-Japan are down over 2% across the board. Curiously the Nikkei went nowhere, and the yen is weaker, sending USDJPY on a tear -- no more triangle.

Futures are down hard on the heels of yesterday's sell off, and there is a whiff of "everything's fine" in the air . . . "don't panic."

Here's the deal: this is what happens when markets go up on weak internals when the future of a Fed backstop is uncertain.  In other words, we could be transitioning back to a "real" marketplace, like, right now.

Here's another: until the S&P gets below 1608.07, there are still higher targets, but it is likely that the confluence targets in the chart below posted yesterday will be negated at the open.

To see 4 areas of confluence go poof is no laughing matter. But even with a strong down day this is still a market with options.

The point is: we're in a huge range and the target areas are wide. The odds are much better at the fringes, not in the middle.

Below 1608.07, things can get weird fast. But any sort of failure or hesitancy to break down could be pounced on by insiders who have billions on the line this week during quarterly op-ex. Remember, they see everyone's position, and they don't fight fair.

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