The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, June 7, 2013

Levels Not Numbers

Overslept this morning and missed much of the NFP madness. Good. I don't care about NFP numbers. I do care about price levels.

The violent up/down reaction in the futures shows just how precarious things are. The rally off the lows yesterday was very nice, but it also felt like short covering. So it's hard to tell what's in store.

I was a little concerned that price was unable to close above 1622.72, the big low of June 3rd, and to me, that was a small warning. With the VIX giving a strong buy signal for the market by closing below its upper 2 standard deviation band, price should have no trouble filling the gap at 1631.38. Anything less will suggest to me that there is possibly more work below.

One thing I am near certain of, however, is that we're still in a correction and not a trend change. But one headline concerned me: CNBC says "No swoon: Job Creation Continues." Maybe it's too soon to call.

Therefore, the bigger target for me today is 1646.53 which would break the downtrend line and negate the aggressive Elliott bearish count.

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