Asia and Europe are mixed. ES futures look mixed up. Somehow I don't think things are going to be as simple as the latest rally off the lows suggests.
Assuming that 1646.53 is exceeded, the simple scenario is that price rockets to new highs in a strong impulse wave.
The alternative is that the decline morphs into a larger ABC correction. Or, based on a wave count that I found over the weekend (not mine), it is possible that the decline is still taking shape, and that a trend change is still in the cards.
I do not know how much credence I give this latter scenario, but it is very interesting. The break point would be 1674.21. It will be wild if it develops, but at this point, I'm regarding it as speculative.
Even if there is still an ABC to come, deep retracements have been the character of the market for many years now. That could mean 1660-1666 before leg C possibly tested the 1550s.
At this point, however, I would much prefer a euphoric rise into new highs against a backdrop of macro non-confirmations in the yen, gold, oil, Nikkei, DAX, FTSE, 10s and 30s, and strength in the dollar. Nothing is ever simple. But we should always strive for it.