The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, October 3, 2013

Chicago-Style Markets

Futures were down sharply overnight and are currently in the middle of the range. The sharp sell off may be because, as noted on Zero Hedge, the CME hiked ES, NQ, and Dow margin rates by 9% after yesterday's close.

Like the folks at Zero Hedge, my first impression is the possibility of Chicago-style politics coming into play. I do not think the administration is above intentionally cratering the market to make a point.

I'll never forget the press conference back in early March of 2009 when the president almost smirked when he told reporters that the market may soon begin to recover. And magically, it did. It ripped.

Likewise, when any world leader tells a reporter that they "tend not to make judgments on the base of the stock market" you can bet that they do.

The market could bounce from current levels, but I do not think the low has been found. I continue to allow for 1650-1670. I scaled out a bunch of SPY 180 calls yesterday afternoon when 1695.02 wasn't exceeded. I'd like to buy more, plus some SPY 175 calls too. And some more SSO, and maybe some UPRO, all in different tranches, all against the 2014 SPY 100 and 130 puts I'm holding.

I'm watching how Tesla acts now that it's had a dose of bad news. I don't care about car fires; I care about volume. And yesterday volume came out of TSLA. Being an important barometer of social mood, how it recovers could be an important tell for the market.

It's Indian Summer here in New England, a special treat before the winds of Autumn strip the leaves from the trees and the air begins to chill. A bittersweet reminder of the balmy, easy days of Summer left behind.

It's beautiful. It's sad. It's warm. It's sunny. It's Indian Summer. It's here and then it's gone.

Indian Summer by Luna on Grooveshark

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