Still feels like the lows aren't fully in, but the downward hesitancy is palpable. As is the case with political risk, a catalyst could come at any time, but the risk works both ways: bad news can come at any time as well.
The market bounced off 1670, but failed to get inside the expected 1650-1670 range.
This is one of the times when the e-mini chart looks clearer than the cash S&P. The cash chart is better to use for charting because it doesn't trade and, because it isn't directly pushed around by leveraged market participants, it is a far more accurate read on the "market" than a derivative such as SPY or a futures contract such as the ES (e-mini).
Should the ES get above 1684.75, it could signal a change in the tone and pattern of the market for the near-term. There is plenty of air above for the pattern to develop into a more apparent three-wave structure before it hits the lower trendline of its rising wedge.
Today a sandwich franchise is going public. Twitter, which I use daily without paying a dime for it, will IPO next week, and has just revealed to the world that it loses money. Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos are fighting over control of a historic launch pad at Kennedy Space Center for their respective space projects while also running publicly-traded companies.
Given Tesla's high-volume pullback of late and Amazon's no-volume crawl to new highs, coupled with IPOs of sandwiches and unprofitable social media, this too could signal a change in tone that might soon suggest, "Lost In Space."
Another reason why I still feel the market is set up for higher highs, but that the highs will be a sell.
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