The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, October 4, 2013

Lost In Space?

Still feels like the lows aren't fully in, but the downward hesitancy is palpable. As is the case with political risk, a catalyst could come at any time, but the risk works both ways: bad news can come at any time as well.

The market bounced off 1670, but failed to get inside the expected 1650-1670 range.

This is one of the times when the e-mini chart looks clearer than the cash S&P. The cash chart is better to use for charting because it doesn't trade and, because it isn't directly pushed around by leveraged market participants, it is a far more accurate read on the "market" than a derivative such as SPY or a futures contract such as the ES (e-mini).

Should the ES get above 1684.75, it could signal a change in the tone and pattern of the market for the near-term. There is plenty of air above for the pattern to develop into a more apparent three-wave structure before it hits the lower trendline of its rising wedge.

Today a sandwich franchise is going public. Twitter, which I use daily without paying a dime for it, will IPO next week, and has just revealed to the world that it loses money. Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos are fighting over control of a historic launch pad at Kennedy Space Center for their respective space projects while also running publicly-traded companies.

Given Tesla's high-volume pullback of late and Amazon's no-volume crawl to new highs, coupled with IPOs of sandwiches and unprofitable social media, this too could signal a change in tone that might soon suggest, "Lost In Space."

Another reason why I still feel the market is set up for higher highs, but that the highs will be a sell.

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