The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Futures, Ukranian Rates, Herding, And Stops

What was it about 7am that the futures didn't like? All the bad Fed taper news was out last night.


Could it be that markets can go down for no reason other than they just do sometimes, kinda like Bitcoin . . . which recently lost 50% of its value in three days?

There's no Fed to taper Bitcoins. There's just a market. And markets are run by the subconscious reactions of humans. Most make their decisions based on what others do. If others buy, they buy. If others sell, they sell.

It's called herding.

Ukranian overnight rates have spiked to 20%. The bull dope would say "rising rates for the right reasons" is good. Really? Maybe some asset manager is on the wrong side of some Eastern European debt and is in sell-only crisis mode.

Regardless, futures are down, as was expected. Here are some charts from yesterday.




I'm thinking scenario #2 may be in play. 1796.36 is the stop if this is indeed occurring. I'll be buying SPY 181 calls.

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