12 get-rich sectors for a hot 2014 bull market . . .
Making a big play for 2014 right now . . .
Safe and steady ETFs for the new year . . .
These are just one morning's headlines from just one site that I check each day: Marketwatch. I love how it consistently seems to capture the current mood -- but today is remarkable.
Even Bloomberg got in on the fun. BRIC-coiner Jim O'Neill, former chairman of Goldman Sach Asset Management and now a Bloomberg contributor, thinks we should Cheer Up.
This is what things sound like when optimism is at a peak. Record levels of margin interest, record low levels of money fund assets (everybody has their money in stocks), the highest bull/bear ratio since 1987 as measured by Investors Intelligence (kudos to Steve Hochberg and Peter Kendall at EWI for pointing this out). Recent readings of the Daily Sentiment Index have been consistently above 90, which is also far from gloomy.
Anyone who points out these things seems to get branded as a pessimist. Even that is a sign of excessive sentiment.
Could bullish sentiment take the market higher? You bet. Here's a scenario that caught my eye. Careful, it's an overlay. Overlays can work great and then suddenly stop. But this one is spooky good. The key thing is that it almost perfectly lines up with not one but two Bradley Turn Dates: January 1st and 9th.
The current wave pattern from Friday would look better with a slight new high above 1806.04. From there the S&P will have to choose whether to continue higher or not. There is a slight chance that it rolls over and tanks hard. There is also enough momentum to take it to higher highs.
VIX is still low enough to take outlier bets on outlier moves until the S&P makes up its mind. I will be looking for SPY puts this week and will be looking to get out of some 181 SPY calls.
Cool. Glad you liked it. Thanks for your kind comment.
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