The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Here Come The Journalists

Here come the journalists weighing in on the Tom Demark crash story. Now we know this is something bigger than a simple market call.

From the former New Republic writer Matthew O'Brien, who has recently penned such missives at The Atlantic such as How When Harry Met Sally Explains Inequality, 5 Reasons to Not Freak Out About an Obamacare Death Spiral, and this beauty, The Fed Tapered Perfectly—Here's What It Needs To Do Next, we are graced with this latest installment:

Regardless of which side you come down on this topic, one thing is for certain: when journalists start taking sides about market calls, you can be sure an inflection point is nearby. The fact that this guy poked his nose into the fray actually increases my suspicion that history is about to echo.

Elsewhere, the news is getting old which keeps pressure on higher prices. Marketwatch notes that the latest 13F filings show George Soros has increased his bearish bet on the S&P to $1.3 billion. This looks plenty scary until you realize that he's been rolling the position since 2010 and that it's most likely part of a hedge against even larger valued long positions. The put position did increase by 154% in the fourth quarter, but since it's old data, no one will know if he took some off at the February lows until the 1st quarter 2014 is over.

Much is also being made of the Nikkei's performance last night. Yet even with it up as much as 400 points, it still failed to break above its Feb. 11 swing point. So big whoop.

Regarding the S&P, here is the latest chart showing the rough wave count since the Feb. 5th lows. I've added an important stop at 1788.25 should we get a wave 4 dip. The market has yet to show any sign -- wave wise -- that it is has taken its eye off higher prices. Using a Fibonacci extension target, I'm still betting on 1887. I'm am also adding small bits of UVXY when I can, but it's very difficult.

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