The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Paul Farrell Weighs In On The Predictably Irrational Consensus

Futures are down, but not down enough. For me that is. I dumped my UVXY position in the pre-market after it closed poorly and didn't snap back the way it should've. I could be way wrong, but with the pattern looking suddenly like a rising wedge that wants to break to the upside, I want to see it break before I put on any more. UVXY is a volatile beast.

The 1830 area should be support should the market continue to slide. Below that would put pressure on 1809.22. Anything below 9.22 would cause 1788.25 to become ultra important given the current count. The current count could be wrong of course, but it's the best I have at the moment.

If correct that the market is forming a rising wedge, 1850.84 could be the thrust target.

Paul Farrell at Marketwatch, a market veteran, wrote a powerful piece that followed nicely behind yesterday's post Here Come The Journalists. His piece went further. Ha, a lot further. And he skewered the consensus, too, which he termed "predictably irrational." Good.

Crash of 2014: Like 1929, you’ll never hear it coming also touched on something that I forgot to address: the fact that markets don't need a catalyst to fall. Just like a beautiful woman, they can be utterly unpredictable at times. That is why I consider the market to be female. To me, it's not Mr Market . . . it's Ms.

Anyway, Farrell correctly points out that the secret to predicting a crash is programmed in your brain. He's right. It's called the limbic system. It's not rational; it's pre-rational. It causes people to act before they think, and because of this, it's why herding happens. For much more on this subject, see The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics by Robert Prechter. Don't try to trade the markets without it.

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