The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Key Levels For The Wedge Scenario

Fed Chair Yellen speaks before the Senate at 10am EDT. Futures are all over the place. They were down hard, now flat.

Anything below 1840.19 on the cash S&P likely puts pressure on 1824.58 which should hold, or else the rising wedge pattern is out and a possible larger a-b-c pattern could form which would mean a larger retracement of the rally from 1737. If so, 1800 would make a great level for a retest.

It is also more than possible that I have mislabeled the rising wedge and that rather being in the 5th and final leg of the 5th wave (a terminal structure), we could be in a 2nd wave of the 5th, with 3, 4, and 5 still to come. Recall that waves thrust in three waves and correct in two waves. Again, 1824.58 remains key for the wedge scenario.

Current conditions could contribute to some interesting gyrations. Europe is largely down this morning. Ukraine is weighing heavily on the news. Banks and financials continue to underperform, signalling that falling rates are weighing heavily on their spreads.

As an aside, the more I hear bankers bitching about reserve requirements being too high (at just 10% for the largest institutions), the more I think they're a bunch of sissies. 90% of depositors would get screwed if the system failed. Banks should go back to being depository institutions and leave the trading to the cowboys and the freaks like us indians who like to fling arrows at them.

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