The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, February 28, 2014

Treating Every New High As A Final High

Short and sweet today. I posted this chart yesterday on Twitter and Stocktwits and it still applies.

If correct that a rising wedge is forming, the parallel trend channel will likely give way to a contracting one. For now, this chart monitors two things: the trend channel and the wave count until one of them breaks.

Bloomberg reports that Tom Demark is now looking for 1885 within the next three weeks. And in the same article is this sentiment, which I like very much:

“If I were bearish, I’d be very concerned,” Doug Foreman, chief investment officer at Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management in Los Angeles, said by phone. His firm oversees about $9 billion. “What’s it going to take for me to be right? I don’t know. There is no evidence that they’re going to be right any time soon.”

No evidence. Therein lies the trap. The market doesn't need any evidence other than a completed structure as evidenced by a correct wave count. Who knows if the above count is correct. It probably isn't. But at least it is an expectation. One should always trade with an expectation, even if it is wrong. Because even being wrong will provide information.

Right now I'm treating every new high as if it is the final high.

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