The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Is It Putin, Yellen, Or The Last Goodbye?

Futures spiked last night. The "reason" being offered is that Putin has put an armed Ukrainian invasion on hold.

But it was also postulated yesterday that all this sudden turbulence may cause Yellen to put her foot down and say No to further tapering.

Or, could it be that the market was due to rally anyway because that's what markets do after they complete a wave 1 down; they bounce in wave 2, and wave 2 can retrace as much as 99% if it wants.

I unloaded most of the UVXY calls yesterday which were up huge. Hedged the rest. Lifted the hedge, then hedged again at 3:17 pm. Today I will sell it again.

The market should test 1860.68 today. That would represent a 78.6% retracement. I will look at more VIX there, probably April calls now. I may add to UVXY, but its IV (volatility) is so sky high that I may or may not add options too.

This week should decide whether the bounce will lead to new highs or is merely a gift to the shorts.

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