The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, March 3, 2014

Current Thoughts

Posted this chart Friday afternoon. Was looking for a decline from "3" but was looking for more of a 3- legged pullback. The straight-line move down was therefore unexpected. With futures down hard this morning, the possibility is that the top is in. 

However, futures have not violated their 2/27 lows which equate to 1840.66 on the cash. As is often stated in these posts, the cash S&P is the only thing that matters to me chartwise because it doesn't trade (and therefore can't be pushed around and manipulated). I don't ever chart the SPY because it is a derivative, pays dividends, and has fees attached to it, all of which can affect its charting.

(I do often compare SPY against other ETFs such as IYG, HYG, and JNK. And lately IYG -- financials-- have been giving a sell signal.)

If 1840.66 holds on the cash S&P, there is still a chance for price to make a new high if the chart above is correct. That high, if it materializes, would probably be one of the best selling opportunities ever.

The UVXY position I'm holding is up a crazy 20% this morning. Friday I added a bunch of March 85 calls. I will need to take some profits and hedge the rest if 1840.66 holds.

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