The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Doubts Cast & 400 Billion

So today Asia is mixed and Europe is mostly green, a flip flop from the day before. Wondering if the market is getting ready to do the same.

Futures are up steadily overnight. If the cash S&P gets above 1877.47 today it will cause an overlap in the wave structure and cast doubts on the bear case. It wouldn't surprise me.

With Memorial Day approaching (along with a bank holiday in the UK) we must also keep in mind that there is a tendency for the market to rally into a long weekend. A gap remains at 1888.53 and rather pronounced volume shelf sits near 1894.

Should 1877.47 hold off the bulls, however, look lower. 1862.36 will likely fail. If so, the 1:1 Fib target is 1846.70 but there is a shallower 1:.618 target at 1861.91 that may or may not be in the cards.

The 1:1 Fib target also lines up with a 61.8% retracement level (acts as support at 1846.90) and a gap at 1842.98.

Elsewhere, Russia just signed a $400 billion gas deal with China after 10 years of negotiations. We are morons.

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