The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Mixed And Possibly Still Corrective

Asia was green last night and Europe is mixed thus far. The longer it stays mixed (and thus corrective), the better the chances are for a final poke at new all-time highs on the S&P. Wedge patterns predominate throughout the major stocks indexes and may even be in play in USDJPY.

There is a gap at 1888.53 on the cash S&P and a volume shelf just below the 1894 area that could pull price slightly higher, but the structure of the latest rally from 1862.36 looks corrective and the lack of volume (the lowest so far in 2014) supports that view. Additionally, risk proxies such as high-yield credit and the yen have not followed the S&P higher.

From yesterday's high, there is a 1:1 Fib extension target at 1846.70. Obviously the target would change if the market chose to probe higher, but the point is that considerably lower prices are still possible.

The VIX looks like it could have another new low below 11.88, but I still like accumulating it at this time via UVXY.

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