The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, July 21, 2014

The Market's Choices After Friday's Pivotal Day

Friday was a pivotal day . . . for the near term. It looks like a triangle was either put in or is building. This would call for new highs.

Only if Thursday's 1955.59 lows were broken would the market be in danger. A/Ds were quite strong, ending the day at 4.67:1, not the sort of reading one would expect of a market ready to roll over.

Volume, though, was especially muted for an options expiration. Ticks were muted, TRIN was non-committal, new 52-week highs were lame, and high yield credit continued to demonstrate it spooky desertion from the advance.

Futures are down an unimpressive amount thus far. However, Europe does not look good. Nor does EURUSD after breaking 1.35 and reversing. Now it looks like it's having second thoughts.

The pattern of the e-mini thus far does look like a possible falling wedge. A deep retracement might be expected, but again, the cash lows need to hold or else things could get ugly for newly sucked-in bulls.

The market now has a choice of the 1985.44 gap above and Thursday's 1958.12 gap below.

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