The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, July 18, 2014

What Mood Is Warning & What Markets Are Saying

Sadly, I think we may finally know what happened to Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.

This whole story stinks like hell. We're now supposed to believe that a completely different Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 was shot down over Ukraine.

Oh, and the missile is reported as Russian made.

Oh, and Russia now has the black box data recorders.

Oh, and during all the confusion Israel started a ground war in Gaza.

This whole story stinks like hell.

Many times it's better to get one's news from the markets. And overnight the markets behaved well except for S&P futures which broke through their July 10th lows.

These lows equate to the 1952.86 swing point mentioned on Stocktwits/Twitter yesterday Breaking it on the cash S&P could target 1935-1940 -- the zone of the 50dma and the 38% Fib.

However, there is a 1:1 Fib extension just below the swing point at 1951.21 that could conclude an Elliott a-b-c flat. Since futures have bounced hard since breaking below their equivalent swing point, 51.21 should be respected if there is any sort of hesitation there.

Overnight, the 10-year, the Euro, and the yen traded fine. Oil and gold are down. So for now the news from the markets is calm.

Here are updated charts of the wedge as well as some rare triple Fibonacci confluence in the 1913-1927.14 zone. While both suggest caution, they could still choose to resolve in a bullish manner for now.

This is a market that has been priced for perfection for a long time. And the thing that should be clear is that mood is shifting negatively as the markets head higher. Mood is providing a very loud warning.

Geopolitics is just the latest example. And the thing about geopolitics is that there rarely are mistakes. Rather there is advanced planning, deception, disinformation, and intentional confusion. Perhaps that's why, as reported by the FT this morning, "Israel warns of widening Gaza ground war."

Does war really need a Twitter account?

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