The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, July 28, 2014

Why BTFD May Be Ending Soon

Surprise, surprise . . . the S&P finally had enough of weak highs and tested 1975.

The 1973.63 gap remains open, futures do not look impressive in the overnight and pre-market sessions, the S&P cash looks like it wants another low, and 1970 is still just sitting there, waiting.

If there is a test of 1970, though, it could represent a great buying opportunity IF 1965.77 holds. That's a reasonably tight stop, and one that I'll be taking seriously. Because, in addition to pattern breakdown, there is also a Paul Montgomery-style editorial warning in play as of this morning.

Buying on Dips Pays Most in Five Years as Stocks Rebound

In other words, for our socionomic benefit, Bloomberg has just noted:

"Not since the bull market began has buying dips in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index been a surer way of making money."

Just as Paul Montgomery of Universal Economics has observed that magazine covers tend to highlight trends just as those trends are ending, financial news headlines can be an early, if somewhat weaker, indicator.

This suggests that BTFD will be over soon.

But if 1965.77 holds, it may live a little longer.

Again, that's a big IF. But if so, SPY 197 calls would work just fine.

Vermont was a lot of fun. I'll be putting together some pics in a later post.



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