OPEC, EU/Japan CPI, And Higher Can Happen...Unless

Gee thanks, OPEC.

Was kind of expecting -- and mentally prepared for -- some kind of flush on news of no production cut by OPEC on Thursday.

But 67.75 was a little more than I was ready for. So it appears the first tranche of USO calls I was using will be toast.

I usually do these kind of spec trades in three tranches, however. So I've got to make the next two count.

Currently thinking $60-65 is the buy -- or the next place where I will try to buy.

Gold got hit, too. But still looks better than crude. With Sunday's Swiss gold referendum still to come, I am looking for a possible retracement down to the $1145-1160 area but the lows to hold.

The EU continues to cool as EU CPI data slowed again to 0.03%. And Japan is still going nowhere fast at 0.09%. Both figures seem obscured by the OPEC news, but they are much bigger issues (and could even be key contributors to falling oil prices).

The S&P opened with a new high on inverted A/Ds (fewer advancers, more decliners) and very weak ticks (like 37 as indicated by Tradestation). I continue to like VIX calls but am using them very sparingly (due to their extremely high Implied Volatility readings) until something breaks.

2056.75 continues to be that something.

I am tracking a very speculative wave count, however, that calls for a decline into the 2030-2040 area before another burst up to around 2,100.

If the S&P complies with a near-term decline, my confidence in the wave count will go up enough to share it. Until then, unless 2056.75 breaks, higher can happen