Four Things . . .

Four things I thought about all weekend:

1) The big news last week was not that the S&P 500 rallied 100 points. The big news, to me, is that the US dollar rallied above its 2009 highs, and doing so, broke the entire down trend from its double top in 2001-2002. This is a huge FU to central banking worldwide and any sovereigns who have issued dollar-denominated bonds.

2) As the dollar has rallied, high yield credit has tanked. This is risk aversion. Risky bets are being unwound as they become more and more expensive to repay.

3) My friend in the car business echoed this Friday night at dinner. He said that other less financially healthy dealerships in his area are seeing their rates go up. This means they are paying more and more "juice" for floorplan -- which is the interest they pay to have all those shiny news cars on their lots. They don't own the cars; they "rent" them from the automakers.

"This always happens at the end of the cycle," he said. Yet another reason why he wants to get out of the business.

4) Taking all of the above into consideration, it bugged me all weekend that I sort of automatically said that I could see the current market structure in the S&P "lasting until sometime in March." I may want to reconsider that.

The S&P cash did not make a new high Friday while the e-mini did.  If the S&P can't do so on light holiday trading after a nice weekend rest, there may be trubs. At the bottom last Tuesday, the S&P cash made a new low while the e-mini did not, which was the first tell that Janet was about to wrong-foot everyone.

After all, 5s and 10s still don't look that great.

Making the trip up to L.L. Bean in Freeport, Maine today for my annual pre-Christmas ritual. My nieces and nephews will be stoked.