Watching Oil And 5s & 10s

The bears got wrong-footed. For now.

Janet didn't blow her chance. She proved adept at Fed Speak. We can now look forward to other metaphors being used the next time they want to "change" the statement but not say anything: Someday. Later on. Down the road. In a little bit . . .

2016.89 just got blasted away. The move from the 2079.47 high is now likely corrective and new all-time highs will likely follow, but further lows cannot be ruled out yet depending on how big (and what type) a pattern is in play.

BUT, there is a way to count the entire decline as a 5-wave impulse. If valid, this rally is on borrowed time. (Actually it could last for a couple weeks or more, but could be entirely retraced before making much lower lows). Too soon to tell.

The S&P has rallied sharply, surpassing the 61.8% level of the decline at 2038.63. Closing above this level could signal a test of a volume shelf at the 2054 area and the 78.6% level at 2056.59.

Oil is fading. It needs to get in gear or else risk a plunge to yet further lows. Below 54.60 would be big signal -- for bears.

When I first heard the news regarding Cuba, I thought it was brilliant due to its timing. It now appears that talks between the US, Cuba, and the Vatican have been going on for well over a year.

What I thought was a master chess move to mess with Putin at the perfect time no longer holds water. And it appears to be a divisive subject among the Cuban-Hispanic community, again, something which I find surprising. I thought it was a brilliant way to rally them behind the administration -- and Democrats -- for good.

Elsewhere, 5s and 10s don't look that great . . .