The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, February 23, 2015

Monday Market Update -- Withdrawals Could Outpace Reforms

News:
As Greece now submits its list of reforms and Eurogroup members begin debating the merits, the real action is at the ATM as people rightly get their cash in hand. Deposit withdrawals could break Greece before the Troika does.

Not news, just a possibility.

ES Futures:
Off their record highs only slightly thus far.

S&P Outlook:
The market continues its march to rendezvous with a confluence of multiple higher Fibonacci targets.

One may complain about weak internals, but its uncanny at times how the market will do *whatever it takes* to fulfill its objective regardless of "how" it gets there.

Friday's rally seems to require a few more subdivisions higher before any change of a workable pullback. Futures are confirming this so far.

FX:
Further USD strength. Action in the Scandies and the Swiss franc today.

Bonds:
Once again the juice is in the 10-year overnight as treasuries are bid across the spectrum. Question is, are they bid enough or will they be pulled lower?

Energy:
Crude is breaking down from its rising wedge pattern, off well over 3%. NG, while up, looks like it may be reconsidering things too.

Metals:
Gold is holding below 1200. If below 1167.30, the odds of new lows rise considerably.

Special Situations:
The 10-year. I'm seeing and hearing comments from technicians, traders, and pundits that falling bond prices are bullish for equity markets.

How then do they explain that equity markets have more or less followed bond prices higher since 1982?

Falling bond prices have been a reliable tip-off for trouble throughout Europe since 2010. They will likely telegraph the same trouble elsewhere, especially in Japan and the US.

I continue to view the Dec 24th lows as significant levels in 2s through 30s.

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