The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, February 20, 2015

Friday Op Ex

No news is not necessarily good news, so don't trade the news. The opportunity is in the reaction.

ES Futures:
Down yes, but still hanging at the highs.

S&P Outlook:
The longer the S&P can't pull away from 2098.43, the more gravity the level has. With internals weak, lower levels could be tested at any time if higher levels can't soon be attained (without help, Fed, etc.).

How much lower? The 1925 area looks particularly compelling.

Still, with so many Fib targets above the market in the 40 to 60 point range, it may not pay to speculate on a down side washout just yet. Or maybe. . .

Lately it has felt as if the name of the game is options premium decay. Being op-ex today, it will be interesting to see if it continues.

The euro is under pressure. It continues to feel as if a compromise might be euro bearish and a Greek exit bullish, but who knows if the market would agree.

USD remains firm.

The Danish Krone is weak today and looks as if it will eventually reach new lows vs. USD as the rumor mill continues that it might cease its euro peg. Wondering if USDDKK may in fact be a proxy for the Troika-Greece negotiations. Pure speculation there. . .

30s are getting perilously close to their Dec 24th lows, a break of which would signal a possible multi-decade trend change. Again, if it should come to fruition, it would eventually dwarf the Greek drama.

Crude rallied from where it had to. $49.82 is the stop for a rally scenario. NG seems to be building strength, and may have its eye on the 3.339 swing point on the continuous contract.

Having broken 1200 Wednesday, gold shows scant ability to recover well.

Special Situations:
The Facebook still has a Fib extension target of 83.70.

Commercial real estate is showing signs of a possible peak. IYR reached a high of 94.99 in Feb. 2007. It reached 83.54 Jan 30th. There has been a persistent seller in it going back to Sept. 2014. This is worth watching in light of the implosion and negative divergence in high yield credit as the S&P has rocketed higher.

No comments:

Post a Comment