The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, March 30, 2015

Monday -- PBOC, Real Estate, Cash, AUD, Crude

ES Futures:
Straight up on overnight China narrative -- possible easing by PBOC.

PBOC always makes me think of PB&J.

News:
Here it is: real estate's latest whopper. This house just sold for $1.2 million. It's basically a tear down.


From Marketwatch.com -- "The 1,832 square-foot house, listed on Redfin.com as a “contractors special” in a “deteriorative state” that “needs everything” just sold March 24 for a whopping $1.21 million in cash, (or $660 a square foot) after being listed in February for $799,000 (a premium of $411,000). At that per-square foot price, it was more expensive than the going rate in Boston, Washington and New York."

There was also mucho drama about a comment by Janet Yellen about cash. Zero Hedge went nuts and blew it completely out of proportion. Santelli poured fuel on the fire too.

For the record, she said (and I emphasize) that "cash is not a very convenient store of value." I agree with her.

She did NOT say that cash was not a store of value.

Try taking delivery of $100,000 from your bank. Chances are they won't have it. Then, after you do get it, after they file a few STRs on you with local, state, and federal authorities (suspicious transaction reports -- which are now required), where do you store it? Or more accurately, where do you hide it?

Try hauling around a 400 oz. gold bar. It's heavy.

Anyway here's the clip. She's right.



FX:
All the talk overnight about China easing doesn't seem to have helped AUD. Below .76108 and it could have big problems -- at least further lows.

Continuing to see USD decline as corrective and thus open to higher rally highs.

Treasuries:
At first glance, everything was up but the 30yr. Now it has joined the party.

Oh, and this morning was the first time in a very long time that the 10yr didn't have the highest overnight Globex volume. That went to the ES.

Energy:
Should crude fall below 47 it would likely break the nascent uptrend.

Looking for new lows on NG, but would then look for longs.

Metals:
Gold simply blew it last week. First it was unable to crest 1223. Then it couldn't even hold 1200. Much more of this and it might be a challenge to hold 1100.

S&P Outlook:
With futures rallying from an important juncture on strong overnight volume, the cash market will have every opportunity to crest 2072. If it then holds, there is not much overhead congestion up to 2090. But a failure could see the 2039.69 swing point give way. Then pretty much anything down to 1980.90 is game -- and that better not break or there could be huge problems.

However, after studying charts of DAX, FTSE, NASDAQ, NDX, RUSSELL, and DOW, it appears that rising wedges are in play across all these markets -- and they appear unfinished.

So unless 1980.90 breaks, my money is on further upside to complete the pattern. Then larger opportunities await.

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