The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, March 27, 2015

Friday -- Easy As A-B-E? Maybe Not. Crude. Yellen. A/Ds

ES Futures:
Nearly flat after uneventful overnight session.

News:
Unfortunate timing:

London's FT has a story on its front page "As easy as A-B-E: Prime minister argues Abenomics is working better than people realise" while another headline noted "Japan near deflation as core CPI hits 0%."

The CPI headline has since been removed and the A-B-E story buried "below the fold."

Oh, and WSJ is out with "Japan’s Zero Inflation a Setback for Abenomics." Tough luck in British Newsland today.

Meanwhile, 30-year JGB yields head toward their steepest jump in two months.

Elsewhere, Yellen speaks today at 3:45 pm Eastern time.

FX:
Quiet but for GBP which is stronger on comments by BOE's Carney. Higher interest rates could be in the wings for Great Britain. USD chart still not broken.

Treasuries:
Prices up across the complex.

Energy:
Crude may be thinking things over. Commerzbank commodity strategist Carsten Fritsch said, "Yesterday's price rise was a knee-jerk reaction to events in Yemen and market participants are now making a more sober assessment of the situation.”

NG's fizzle continues.

Metals:
Gold is trying to hold on to 1200. Trying is the operative word.

S&P Outlook:
Did the S&P stop its decline yesterday where it had to, or to take a rest before breaking through the 2039.69 swing point?

The two scenarios posted yesterday anticipate (but do not require) that 2039.69 could fail. So again patience is the word.

Internally, Ticks and A/Ds are not as bleak as one would expect if the decline was heading much lower. But that's about it. Would prefer to see the index back to the 2072 level today.

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