Thursday -- It Took A War

ES Futures:
Down hard, but not yet through the important 3/11 swing point.

News:
Should have known it would take a war to wake up the markets...

FX:
USD showing firmness. USDJPY showing a more aggressive move (toward yen strength) which is not a good sign (and with Nikkei down hard overnight).

Treasuries:
2s through 30s alternating pos-to-neg, which is odd.

Energy:
Again, it took a war close to a significantly strategic global shipping lane to wake up oil. The chart still looks messy, but there is no reason why it can't head higher. But again, no interest from me here.

Metals:
All this doom & gloom & war boom and gold still failed to crest 1223.

S&P Outlook:
A big level is 2039.69. Below it could be a much bigger problem in the market than most expect, including me, as I've been giving the pattern the benefit of the doubt.

However, the most important level for me is 1980.90.

If 2039.69 were to give way but 1980.90 holds, it is possible that the third wave of the wedge is in and that a fourth wave is in play.

I've seen other more bearish wave interpretations -- and overall I'm a bear -- but they are unsatisfying and I tend to doubt them. They tend to disregard too many swing points, but perhaps the worst offenders are the waves themselves.

Once again, what should be the first sub-waves of an epic decline leave much to be desired -- they do not seem impulsive at all, which is the final arbiter for me.

Here are the two counts that I'm currently working with.