The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Thursday -- The Prudent 7-Year Car Loan, Cubans & More

ES Futures:
Sloppy looking rally from sloppy looking overnight action. Not seeing conviction on either side.

Want news? The 7-year car loan was discussed on CNBC yesterday. The advice was disgusting.

Kelly Evans (CNBC): I don't know whether to use the word fascinating, insane. telling . . . I mean, is the point here ultimately that people are going to use the purchase of an asset like a car to get into the stock market and, if so, is that a prudent thing to do from an investing point of view, or does this just reflect the fact that these car loans are available to everyone out there and they might as well just invest the money?

Mark Martiak (Wealth Strategist, Premier Wealth Management): Well it is a prudent thing to do, Kelly.

Thank God Kelly used the word insane so I don't have to.

From his own web site, Martiak "brings his clients broad-based experience earned at such major corporations as UBS Financial Services Inc, Merrill Lynch, Forbes and CRAIN’s, as well as through co-ownership of a Madison Avenue retail clothing store."

Sounds like retail maybe didn't pan out, so maybe he got a job as a financial journalist, then may have parlayed that into a stock broker position. Now he's a wealth strategist recommending you borrow against the fastest depreciating "asset" on the planet and "invest" it in the stock market...but only after a 6-year crack up boom financed by zero interest rates.

I love it when people extrapolate the present into the future. Especially when the future goes back to 1999.

But then there's this:

Ugh. May have to fade it.

Elsewhere, full moon today. 1:05 pm EDT.

USD new highs.  Euro fresh lows as Draghi begins speaking about ECB QE. Calls for euro parity are becoming commonplace...

Still trying to bounce. Better get going soon.

Crude and NG are bouncy but remain unconvincing.

Ditto gold. Hovering at 1200.

S&P Outlook:
Yesterday bounced off a 23.6% Fib level, which is a bullish indication. Even though the bounce in futures is not impressive, it may not matter if yesterday's cash lows hold (2087.62).

There may be lower lows still, just as there are likely higher highs to come. If so, 2060-2070 area still looks possible.

Bigger picture, even if the sharp correction happens -- the reset/reboot that I'm looking for -- it still seems to me that the market would need to rally to further highs before the momentum weakened enough to truly crash.

Or, in Elliott terms: a wave-4 correction from a wave-3 high followed by a weaker 5th-wave advance which should then be sold hard.

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