The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, April 2, 2015

Thursday -- Long The Weekend, Special Situation Mood Alert

ES Futures:
Flat after a much quieter overnight session than the night before.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta reports that its GDP model is at 0.0%.

US imports fell 4.4% in January.

How soon will rumors of no tightening begin swirling...

Elsewhere, in order to get more money, the newly elected amateurs running the Greek government have now gone from a "no more austerity" pledge to handing in their latest list of reforms to its EU masters 26-pages long.

Is it possible to short politicians?

EUR showing strength today.

Prices looking a little toppy at the moment.

Looking for follow through on yesterday's spike up but so far, absent.

Gold again flirting with 1200.

S&P Outlook:
The market is in no better position that it was yesterday. Could it test a volume shelf at 2080 today? Sure. Could it roll over and complete a 1:1 Fib extension at 2019.61 which lines up with a gap at 2020.85? You bet.

It's a long weekend. I'm long the weekend and will let the market tip its hand when it wants to.

For now, the cars are playing . . .

Special Situations (Social Mood Alert):
Cars may have jumped the shark.

Whether it's the 84-month car loan, Warren Buffett, Google, Rolls Royce, or Apple, cars have become a fixture of fascination and a symbol of the latest sure thing.

If the seven-year car loan was not crazy enough, it was recently recommended to borrow the money and invest it in the stock market.

Warren Buffett recently closed a deal to buy the nation’s largest privately-held dealership chain, calling it Berkshire Hathaway Automotive, even though he's never been in the car business.

Google, inventors of the world's most popular internet search algorithm, has announced plans to build self-driven cars, even though it has never been in the car business.

Apple, the computer designer, has announced plans to design a build a car, even though it has never been in the car business.

Rolls Royce, builders of arguably the finest luxury motorcars on the planet, recently announced that it would build its first-ever SUV. Apparently they have sudden expertise with rough terrain.

Meanwhile, total auto loan liabilities are close to $1 trillion -- the highest figure ever -- as car-loan delinquencies are at their highest rate since 2008.

In Puerto Rico, a small island in the Caribbean with almost as many cars on the road as people, bank branches are a common sight in car dealerships.

Debt, much of it sub-prime debt, is once again fueling a mania.

Meanwhile, anecdotally, my friend in the car business who is having his best year ever, is meeting with a broker to sell all his dealerships for top dollar.

When flocks of people reach outside their comfort zone en masse, it's the worst form of herding. It's a social mood alert of the most dangerous type.

Dangerous Type by The Cars on Grooveshark

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