The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, April 6, 2015

Monday -- NFP, Rate Rumors, Crude Bulls, Gold Bears, Wedge Land

ES Futures:
Down hard since the dismal NFP numbers Friday morning, and have stayed there.

My favorite from the weekend. Notice the embedded command:

"Buy stocks now."

Here's a better quote from Ramon Emeterio Betances, 1827-1898:

"To work is to produce. To produce is to serve humanity."

Wonder how a communist would interpret that.

EUR continues to benefit from USD weakness. USD still appears corrective, however.

Thursday's weakness has been erased as prices head higher, yet volume remains suspect.

As expected, the siren song of postponing Fed interest rate hikes has begun, with Goldman Sachs suggesting late Friday that the best course of action would be to put hikes "on hold" for now. Pathetic.

An added bonus will be NY Fed president William Dudley speaking today.

Courtesy of Zero Hedge, "the latest CFTC data shows that bullish bets on oil have been increased by the most in four years."

Bloomberg notes that "booming crude production expanded inventories this year by 86 million barrels to 471 million, the highest level since 1930."

Still anticipating new lows will occur after a bounce runs its course.

Gold took out 1223. This will put pressure on bulls to get above 1307.80 (which I still doubt they will achieve), although the CFTC notes there are record shorts, so things could get interesting for a bit.

S&P Outlook:
Price action is trading heavy and could be setting up a falling wedge inside the larger rising wedge. This would imply that 2039.69 would break while 1980.90 would hold.

My rising wedge conviction is increasing the more I view the charts of the Dow, Nas, NDX, NY composite, and Rus. It's Wedge Land out there.

However, each one of these structures could accommodate lower prices without breaking their respective patterns.

This is what I think may be about to occur in the S&P, which could test all the way to 1980.90 without breaking.

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