The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Tuesday -- Where's The News, Bond Tug-O-War, Range Bound

ES Futures:
Not just e-minis, but all futures are trading as if they need news to move...

...and there just isn't any. Just more of the same. Except maybe for the RBA (Royal Bank of Australia) which unexpectedly held rates steady.

AUD, as one might expect, liked the RBA surprise, but the move is unimpressive thus far. I still want to be long AUD, but still think it needs a new low to flush weak hands.

Interestingly, USD has moved more than AUD percentage wise so far...and higher too.

These are also trading as if they need news to act with conviction.

There could be an epic tug of war brewing with DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach on one side and Blackrock's Jeffrey Rosenberg on the other. Gundlach thinks the Fed can't or won't raise rates. Rosenberg thinks the bond market is poised for a tumble. I'm on both sides.

Crude is on the list of meekness thus far.

Gold got smacked yet is holding above 1200. Take note. Now that 1223 has been exceeded, things won't be so simple.

S&P Outlook:
Noticed a gap shortly after the weak open by bears yesterday (these posts are only a fraction of the story day-to-day) that was posted on Stocktwits -- 2086.24.

With yesterday's rally, ideally 2072.17 should not be broken on a pullback, but would not be the end of the world. Just an early warning perhaps.

The S&P remains in the middle of the month-long range, however, and even with yesterday's rally has little to show for it. I continue to wait for an indication of a new all-time high or a dip below 2039.69.

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