The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, May 22, 2015

Friday -- Long The Weekend

ES Futures:
Didn't like April CPI figures but still hanging at highs.

April CPI up 0.1% with core prices "spike" 0.3%. More cover for the Fed to raise.

Reuters called out BOJ's Kuroda after he presented a rosy case for growth (and thus no additional stimulus). Reuters reminded readers that the biggest contributor to Japan's latest GDP growth was higher inventories, while "private consumption, housing investment and exports all rose but at a feeble pace."

Love the use of feeble . . . love it.

Quiet generally. USD crosses ripping though post-CPI.

The more I view the price patterns, the more I feel they're headed lower and yields are headed higher. Whether it persists is another matter, but for now, it's the way it appears.

WTI is hanging at highs as well. NG needs a rally today or else it will print a bearish weekly candle.

Gold blew a rally on the hot CPI figures -- go figure. Actually, it confirms higher rates coming.

S&P Outlook:
So far, seasonals have the upper hand over Turtle Soup. This could turn out even more bearish, because if the market makes a new high today or Tuesday, it will likely do so on extremely light volume. Not healthy, and not what bulls want. A/Ds are pretty mediocre as well, and new highs continue to be quite muted.

VIX made a new low, but the 3-month VIX curve -- at +4.10 -- is frothy.

OEX made a new high too, but ES & S&P cash have not.

The closest Fib extension targets remain at 2135.33 & 2135.88. Another close below 2125.92 would be a bad set up for next week. If so, have a soup spoon ready.

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