The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Tuesday -- Austerity Politics Spreading, Tie Widths Narrowing (Social Mood Alert)

ES Futures:
Down on follow through from Friday's weak close, however Thursday's ES 2115 swing point has held thus far.

More and more, anti-austerity politics seem to be the real by-product of Greece.

In Spain this weekend (via WSJ), "voters punished the governing Popular Party in regional and municipal elections, throwing significant support to two upstart parties that capitalized on anger over high unemployment, cuts in public spending and corruption." ..."The governing Popular Party was dealt a dramatic electoral blow on Sunday by the leftist Podemos and center-right Ciudadanos."

The same is happening in Portugal with the rise of the left wing anti-austerity, anti-EU party.

And let's not forget recent plans for a Brexit -- whereby Great Britain would leave the EU -- which were leaked to The Guardian newspaper.

These are must-watch developments. Far more important than durable goods numbers out of Washington...

USD is strong today and has sustained its strength after the durable good report which did not seem weak enough to derail the Fed's rate-hike intentions.

More spooky action.

WTI crude back below 60. NG had a poor weekly close (above the previous weekly high yet closed below it on lighter volume) and is continuing down this morning.

Gold down sharply, below 1200. Another indication of rising rates.

S&P Outlook:
Seeing some juicy wave counts by other Elliott Wave traders using daily charts that propose one more high into a wave 5 rather than a wave 3 as I propose (using a weekly chart). Since they could be right, I will sell any new high regardless and will watch 2039.69 carefully.

If the Wave 5 scenario is correct, 2039.69 should be toast. If the Wave 3 scenario is correct, it should hold, in my opinion.

Social Mood:
Ran across a random style mag by Mitchells of Westport, Connecticut in a Condado juice bar this weekend (doubly random).

Apparently, "acceptable tie widths have been narrowing for the past several years." Take note.

Socionomics would see this as akin to rising hemlines. When confidence is rising, people show more. When confidence is falling, people show less.

Mitchells counsels to "slim down your neckwear for a more modern look" and notes that "the hipster look is decidedly narrower."

Hipsters! They're everywhere here. Obligatory fedoras, bumping into to telephone poles & people while using smartphones, taking up space in local bars and restaurants...Hipsters are the new Beatniks, and to paraphrase Donovan, they're "out to make it rich" just as fast.

Social mood, as indicated by narrowing tie widths and rampant Hipsterism, could be sending us a message that times are about to change. Whether it's from Sunshine Superman to Season Of The Witch is up for debate.

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