The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, May 28, 2015

Thursday -- China Falls 6.5%, Addicts Don't Notice

ES Futures:
Only modestly down . . .

News:
. . . with China down 6.5% overnight. Amazing since back in early 2007, China was down 3% overnight and the S&P lost 50+ points (it was a great example of Turtle Soup; remember it well because I had OTM OEX puts that went from .40 to as high as 7.80).

To be fair, the market probably doesn't care because China's decline was more about liquidity draining operations & higher margin requirements, rather than the catalyst being something unexpected.

Yet markets are so jacked up on central bank heroin that they don't care about anything. "Who needs reasons when you've got heroin."

The best thing I've seen in a long time is Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Paul Singer Reveals The "Bigger Short", (though not the laughable gold conclusion at the end by the folks at Zero Hedge).

What ZH doesn't get is that gold is an asset just like any other asset. True, it holds its value over time. But like any asset it can also be sold for value, something that happened with great effect in 2008 and will likely happen again if Singer is correct.

Singer hints at something that is near and dear to my heart: long-term claims on paper money. While bonds are inferred as his subject, it is the claims on actual cash money that intrigue me, as there are far more digital cash "credits" out there than actual paper dollars backing them up.

This is why the USD skyrocketed in 2008 and gold cratered.

FX:
USDJPY took out the 2007 high. Abe & Kuroda must be sipping sake now.

Treasuries:
Still not looking right.

Energy:
WTI crude failing to hold the 23.6% Fib retracement. NG may be giving a nice r/r long against 2.788.

Metals:
Gold still sub-1200.

S&P Outlook:
The gap 2098.48 gap is still open, while the leftover Turtle Soup gap (2126.06) got closed.

Yesterday was once again about price but not internals -- there is A/D, tick, and volume divergence, plus a dearth of new highs at market highs, plus some stunning examples of lopsided investor sentiment like this one found on social media: "Everyday investor should NEVER short any stock EVER"

Elsewhere, Pater Tenebrarum of Acting Man blog, noted that "the recent straight-up surge to a new all-time high in the pure bull/bear asset ratio is the most extreme expression of bullish sentiment in the indicator's history."

Yesterday confirmed my suspicion that the market's sub-waves were probably corrective. New lows are still possible, but my money is still on eventual new highs.

As long as the internals look they way they do, and as long as sentiment remains lopsided, I will be shorting new highs. Or more specifically, shorting completed wave counts.

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